FIM District Ferris State Event presented by Ferris State University

Qualification · Qualification 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

109.13 – 88.31

56%44%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

96 – 52

Prediction correct · off by 24.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 196.1 ±12.2

11435St. Peter's High School RaiderBots

Season APEX 31.3Event APEX 9.26Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9673Volt Vespids

Season APEX 72.2Event APEX 48.6Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3618Petoskey Paladins

Season APEX 92.6Event APEX 51.27Rank 6Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 171.3 ±12.7

7810Eagle Robotics

Season APEX 47Event APEX 20.95Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6100MS Mobots

Season APEX 68.9Event APEX 44.94Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6963Blood Sweat and Gears

Season APEX 55.4Event APEX 22.42Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11435, 9673, 3618

/ 100 compat

Projected

109.1 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 11435, 9673, 3618

Auto

20.3 19%

Teleop

54.3 51%

Endgame

30.9 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7810, 6100, 6963

/ 100 compat

Projected

88.3 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 7810, 6100, 6963

Auto

16.2 18%

Teleop

40.6 45%

Endgame

33.0 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.56 · Blue 1.28

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score109.1pts

Blue projected score88.3pts

Red win probability56%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 20.8
Score range: 65–132
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 148 vs event baseline 127.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

196.1Season APEX171.3

20.3Auto16.2

54.3Teleop40.6

30.9Endgame33

13Consistency10

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	6
teleop	53	19
endgame	23	27
foul	0	0
total	96	52

Result

Final score

96 – 52

Prediction correct · off by 24.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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