FIM District Ferris State Event presented by Ferris State University

Qualification · Qualification 19

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

51.6 – 72.58

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

223 – 98

Prediction missed · off by 98.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 258.1 ±11.7

5982Merrill's Circuits of Destruction

Season APEX 95.9Event APEX 1.7Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6098bIrobot

Season APEX 34.9Event APEX 12.1Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

288The RoboDawgs

Season APEX 127.3Event APEX 37.8Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 228 ±11.7

9771FPRO

Season APEX 146.8Event APEX 40.77Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5247Red Devil Robotics

Season APEX 46.4Event APEX 26.92Rank 27Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5213St. Ignace SHIELD

Season APEX 34.8Event APEX 4.89Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5982, 6098, 288

/ 100 compat

Projected

51.6 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 5982, 6098, 288

Auto

4.2 10%

Teleop

22.7 56%

Endgame

13.4 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9771, 5247, 5213

/ 100 compat

Projected

72.6 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 9771, 5247, 5213

Auto

25.1 32%

Teleop

50.3 63%

Endgame

4.1 5%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.32 · Blue 1.47

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score51.6pts

Blue projected score72.6pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 30%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -21
Score range: 30–95
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 321 vs event baseline 120.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

258.1Season APEX228

4.2Auto25.1

22.7Teleop50.3

13.4Endgame4.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	25
teleop	125	54
endgame	81	19
foul	0	0
total	223	98

Result

Final score

223 – 98

Prediction missed · off by 98.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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