FIM District Ferris State Event presented by Ferris State University

Qualification · Qualification 18

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

109.72 – 117.1

48%52%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

68 – 285

Prediction correct · off by 104.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 162 ±13.3

5182Chieftainators

Season APEX 22.5Event APEX 28.34Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9731All Saints Range Precision

Season APEX 37.6Event APEX 4.69Rank 38Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6077Wiking Kujon

Season APEX 101.9Event APEX 76.69Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 231 ±12.8

5535Bionic Bison

Season APEX 130.9Event APEX 54.84Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9176Greenspire Steel Sturgeons

Season APEX 50.5Event APEX 40.1Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7911Scrap Cat Robotics Team Puma

Season APEX 49.6Event APEX 22.16Rank 39Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5182, 9731, 6077

/ 100 compat

Projected

109.7 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 5182, 9731, 6077

Auto

17.8 17%

Teleop

49.5 47%

Endgame

37.3 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5535, 9176, 7911

/ 100 compat

Projected

117.1 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 5535, 9176, 7911

Auto

19.6 17%

Teleop

73.5 65%

Endgame

19.2 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.31 · Blue 1.45

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score109.7pts

Blue projected score117.1pts

Red win probability48%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 31%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -7.4
Score range: 89–138
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 353 vs event baseline 117.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

162Season APEX231

17.8Auto19.6

49.5Teleop73.5

37.3Endgame19.2

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	21
teleop	43	47
endgame	0	17
foul	0	200
total	68	285

Result

Final score

68 – 285

Prediction correct · off by 104.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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