FIM District Ferris State Event presented by Ferris State University

Qualification · Qualification 17

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

48.81 – 68.79

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

118 – 53

Prediction missed · off by 42.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 184.1 ±12.8

5525Alcona Tool Cats

Season APEX 50.2Event APEX -16.77Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3618Petoskey Paladins

Season APEX 92.6Event APEX 34.51Rank 6Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5878The Great Lakers

Season APEX 41.3Event APEX 31.07Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 148 ±12.7

8286E.A.G.L.E.S. Robotics

Season APEX 46.6Event APEX 8.52Rank 40Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6642Stingers of Steel

Season APEX 45Event APEX 15.23Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9736Tawas Braves

Season APEX 56.4Event APEX 45.04Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5525, 3618, 5878

/ 100 compat

Projected

48.8 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 5525, 3618, 5878

Auto

14.6 29%

Teleop

33.8 67%

Endgame

1.8 4%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8286, 6642, 9736

/ 100 compat

Projected

68.8 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 8286, 6642, 9736

Auto

14.1 21%

Teleop

27.5 41%

Endgame

25.6 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.33 · Blue 1.45

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score48.8pts

Blue projected score68.8pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 29%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -20
Score range: 27–91
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 171 vs event baseline 119.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

184.1Season APEX148

14.6Auto14.1

33.8Teleop27.5

1.8Endgame25.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	8
teleop	76	30
endgame	24	15
foul	0	0
total	118	53

Result

Final score

118 – 53

Prediction missed · off by 42.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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