FIM District Ferris State Event presented by Ferris State University

Qualification · Qualification 16

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

53.71 – 194.15

15%85%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

65 – 367

Prediction correct · off by 92.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 160.8 ±13.3

9721Red Hawk Robotics

Season APEX 30Event APEX -14.42Rank 41Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6100MS Mobots

Season APEX 68.9Event APEX 51.25Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7794Eagle Engineers

Season APEX 61.9Event APEX 16.88Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 354.5 ±12.2

1918Newaygo County GEARS

Season APEX 246.5Event APEX 157.01Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6122Potential Energy

Season APEX 61Event APEX 35.16Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7810Eagle Robotics

Season APEX 47Event APEX 1.98Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9721, 6100, 7794

/ 100 compat

Projected

53.7 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 9721, 6100, 7794

Auto

16.8 38%

Teleop

26.9 61%

Endgame

0.6 1%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1918, 6122, 7810

/ 100 compat

Projected

194.1 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 1918, 6122, 7810

Auto

57.7 29%

Teleop

119.7 60%

Endgame

22.0 11%

Strengths

· 1918 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.64 · Blue 2.23

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score53.7pts

Blue projected score194.1pts

Red win probability15%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 30%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 10%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -140.4
Score range: 34–214
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 432 vs event baseline 113.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

160.8Season APEX354.5

16.8Auto57.7

26.9Teleop119.7

0.6Endgame22

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	78
teleop	28	233
endgame	27	56
foul	0	0
total	65	367

Result

Final score

65 – 367

Prediction correct · off by 92.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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