FIM District Ferris State Event presented by Ferris State University

Qualification · Qualification 15

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

153.6 – 165.26

46%54%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

207 – 117

Prediction missed · off by 50.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 343.8 ±12.4

11435St. Peter's High School RaiderBots

Season APEX 31.3Event APEX 13.63Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7160Ludington O-Bots

Season APEX 247.2Event APEX 67.7Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8611Cyber Patriots

Season APEX 65.3Event APEX 72.27Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 182.4 ±13.3

4004M.A.R.S. Rovers

Season APEX 97.6Event APEX 46.4Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6005Cardinaltronics

Season APEX 69Event APEX 80.99Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7203Cyber Bearcats

Season APEX 15.8Event APEX 37.87Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11435, 7160, 8611

/ 100 compat

Projected

153.6 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 11435, 7160, 8611

Auto

34.9 23%

Teleop

94.5 61%

Endgame

24.5 16%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4004, 6005, 7203

/ 100 compat

Projected

165.3 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 4004, 6005, 7203

Auto

36.8 22%

Teleop

86.9 53%

Endgame

40.0 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.44 · Blue 1.53

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score153.6pts

Blue projected score165.3pts

Red win probability46%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -11.7
Score range: 134–185
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 324 vs event baseline 109.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

343.8Season APEX182.4

34.9Auto36.8

94.5Teleop86.9

24.5Endgame40

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	29
teleop	116	64
endgame	71	24
foul	0	0
total	207	117

Result

Final score

207 – 117

Prediction missed · off by 50.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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