FIM District Ferris State Event presented by Ferris State University

Qualification · Qualification 13

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

46.23 – 42.13

51%49%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

54 – 115

Prediction missed · off by 40.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 171 ±13.3

10421Coded Dragons

Season APEX 71.2Event APEX 28.71Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7911Scrap Cat Robotics Team Puma

Season APEX 49.6Event APEX 32.21Rank 39Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5525Alcona Tool Cats

Season APEX 50.2Event APEX -14.69Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 242.7 ±12.2

9736Tawas Braves

Season APEX 56.4Event APEX 27.2Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5535Bionic Bison

Season APEX 130.9Event APEX 23.39Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6963Blood Sweat and Gears

Season APEX 55.4Event APEX -8.46Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10421, 7911, 5525

/ 100 compat

Projected

46.2 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 10421, 7911, 5525

Auto

3.9 10%

Teleop

17.1 43%

Endgame

19.2 48%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9736, 5535, 6963

/ 100 compat

Projected

42.1 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 9736, 5535, 6963

Auto

5.4 15%

Teleop

10.8 29%

Endgame

20.6 56%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.39 · Blue 1.48

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score46.2pts

Blue projected score42.1pts

Red win probability51%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 31%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 4.1
Score range: 21–67
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 169 vs event baseline 116.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

171Season APEX242.7

3.9Auto5.4

17.1Teleop10.8

19.2Endgame20.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	3	24
teleop	30	69
endgame	21	22
foul	0	0
total	54	115

Result

Final score

54 – 115

Prediction missed · off by 40.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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