FIM District Ferris State Event presented by Ferris State University

Qualification · Qualification 12

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

92.05 – 76.62

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

108 – 100

Prediction correct · off by 19.7 points

Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 270.3 ±11.2

9771FPRO

Season APEX 146.8Event APEX 47.76Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5704Weird & Wired

Season APEX 30.9Event APEX 8.82Rank 28Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3618Petoskey Paladins

Season APEX 92.6Event APEX 35.47Rank 6Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 263.9 ±12.4

6091Eagle 1

Season APEX 41.4Event APEX 26Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5878The Great Lakers

Season APEX 41.3Event APEX 20.26Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3603Cyber Coyotes

Season APEX 181.2Event APEX 30.36Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9771, 5704, 3618

/ 100 compat

Projected

92.1 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 9771, 5704, 3618

Auto

13.6 15%

Teleop

54.8 61%

Endgame

21.1 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6091, 5878, 3603

/ 100 compat

Projected

76.6 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 6091, 5878, 3603

Auto

19.7 27%

Teleop

39.7 55%

Endgame

13.2 18%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.51 · Blue 1.32

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score92.1pts

Blue projected score76.6pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 15.4
Score range: 56–113
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 208 vs event baseline 118.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

270.3Season APEX263.9

13.6Auto19.7

54.8Teleop39.7

21.1Endgame13.2

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	33
teleop	49	65
endgame	1	2
foul	30	0
total	108	100

Result

Final score

108 – 100

Prediction correct · off by 19.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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