FIM District Ferris State Event presented by Ferris State University

Qualification · Qualification 11

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

114.93 – 131.94

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

197 – 294

Prediction correct · off by 122.1 points

Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 225.9 ±11.7

7203Cyber Bearcats

Season APEX 15.8Event APEX 20.33Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6077Wiking Kujon

Season APEX 101.9Event APEX 50.42Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

244RoboDawgs 3D

Season APEX 108.2Event APEX 44.18Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 362.2 ±12.2

1918Newaygo County GEARS

Season APEX 246.5Event APEX 113.92Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5162The Big Red Theory

Season APEX 46.8Event APEX 4Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6100MS Mobots

Season APEX 68.9Event APEX 14.02Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7203, 6077, 244

/ 100 compat

Projected

114.9 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 7203, 6077, 244

Auto

19.5 19%

Teleop

59.6 57%

Endgame

25.6 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1918, 5162, 6100

/ 100 compat

Projected

131.9 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 1918, 5162, 6100

Auto

37.8 29%

Teleop

71.6 55%

Endgame

21.8 17%

Strengths

· 1918 anchors offense

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.35 · Blue 1.64

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score114.9pts

Blue projected score131.9pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -17
Score range: 96–151
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 491 vs event baseline 105.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

225.9Season APEX362.2

19.5Auto37.8

59.6Teleop71.6

25.6Endgame21.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	82
teleop	91	175
endgame	75	37
foul	0	0
total	197	294

Result

Final score

197 – 294

Prediction correct · off by 122.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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