FIM District Ferris State Event presented by Ferris State University

Qualification · Qualification 10

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

93.07 – 97.31

49%51%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

178 – 62

Prediction missed · off by 60.1 points

Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 423 ±10.5

7160Ludington O-Bots

Season APEX 247.2Event APEX 53.14Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1718The Fighting Pi

Season APEX 114.8Event APEX 17.14Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6122Potential Energy

Season APEX 61Event APEX 22.79Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 169.3 ±12.7

9176Greenspire Steel Sturgeons

Season APEX 50.5Event APEX 46.23Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8286E.A.G.L.E.S. Robotics

Season APEX 46.6Event APEX 17.14Rank 40Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9673Volt Vespids

Season APEX 72.2Event APEX 33.94Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7160, 1718, 6122

/ 100 compat

Projected

93.1 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 7160, 1718, 6122

Auto

16.4 18%

Teleop

51.4 58%

Endgame

21.0 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9176, 8286, 9673

/ 100 compat

Projected

97.3 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 9176, 8286, 9673

Auto

18.8 20%

Teleop

51.9 54%

Endgame

25.6 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.54 · Blue 1.35

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score93.1pts

Blue projected score97.3pts

Red win probability49%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 27%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -4.2
Score range: 74–116
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 240 vs event baseline 103.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

423Season APEX169.3

16.4Auto18.8

51.4Teleop51.9

21Endgame25.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	36	19
teleop	104	27
endgame	38	16
foul	0	0
total	178	62

Result

Final score

178 – 62

Prediction missed · off by 60.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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