FIM District Ferris State Event presented by Ferris State University

Qualification · Qualification 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

120.06 – 0

82%18%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

139 – 49

Prediction correct · off by 34 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 256.1 ±12.4

7109Clare Chaos Theory

Season APEX 58.8Event APEX 25.87Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9771FPRO

Season APEX 146.8Event APEX 61.44Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9176Greenspire Steel Sturgeons

Season APEX 50.5Event APEX 32.75Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 80.6 ±13.3

9721Red Hawk Robotics

Season APEX 30Event APEX 3.98Rank 41Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7203Cyber Bearcats

Season APEX 15.8Event APEX 4.18Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5213St. Ignace SHIELD

Season APEX 34.8Event APEX -8.18Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7109, 9771, 9176

/ 100 compat

Projected

120.1 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 7109, 9771, 9176

Auto

31.1 28%

Teleop

50.2 45%

Endgame

29.4 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9721, 7203, 5213

/ 100 compat

Projected

0 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 9721, 7203, 5213

Auto

-0.8 100%

Teleop

-9.7 100%

Endgame

9.9 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.13 · Blue 0.64

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score120.1pts

Blue projected score0pts

Red win probability82%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 23%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 120.1
Score range: -23–143
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 188 vs event baseline 127.7.

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

256.1Season APEX80.6

31.1Auto-0.8

50.2Teleop-9.7

29.4Endgame9.9

34Consistency61

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	11
teleop	82	14
endgame	31	9
foul	0	15
total	139	49

Result

Final score

139 – 49

Prediction correct · off by 34 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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