FIM District Ferris State Event presented by Ferris State University

Final · Finals 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

330.01 – 132.49

92%8%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

345 – 131

Prediction correct · off by 8.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 528.5 ±10.5

7160Ludington O-Bots

Season APEX 247.2Event APEX 93.64Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5213St. Ignace SHIELD

Season APEX 34.8Event APEX -8.77Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1918Newaygo County GEARS

Season APEX 246.5Event APEX 245.14Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 223.7 ±11.1

244RoboDawgs 3D

Season APEX 108.2Event APEX 75.74Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6100MS Mobots

Season APEX 68.9Event APEX 45.06Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8286E.A.G.L.E.S. Robotics

Season APEX 46.6Event APEX 11.69Rank 40Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7160, 5213, 1918

/ 100 compat

Projected

330 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 7160, 5213, 1918

Auto

65.5 20%

Teleop

193.5 59%

Endgame

70.0 21%

Strengths

· 1918 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 244, 6100, 8286

/ 100 compat

Projected

132.5 pts

~0.5 RP (district)

Teams: 244, 6100, 8286

Auto

22.3 16%

Teleop

75.4 56%

Endgame

37.7 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.36 · Blue 0.49

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score330pts

Blue projected score132.5pts

Red win probability92%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 29%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 197.5
Score range: 109–353
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 476 vs event baseline 126.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

528.5Season APEX223.7

65.5Auto22.3

193.5Teleop75.4

70Endgame37.7

18Consistency34

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	89	24
teleop	186	77
endgame	70	30
foul	0	0
total	345	131

Result

Final score

345 – 131

Prediction correct · off by 8.2 pts

Match videos

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