FIM District Ferris State Event presented by Ferris State University

Final · Finals 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

340.18 – 130.05

93%7%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

264 – 150

Prediction correct · off by 48.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 528.5 ±10.5

7160Ludington O-Bots

Season APEX 247.2Event APEX 97.08Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5213St. Ignace SHIELD

Season APEX 34.8Event APEX -5.36Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1918Newaygo County GEARS

Season APEX 246.5Event APEX 248.46Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 223.7 ±11.1

244RoboDawgs 3D

Season APEX 108.2Event APEX 74.82Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6100MS Mobots

Season APEX 68.9Event APEX 43.85Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8286E.A.G.L.E.S. Robotics

Season APEX 46.6Event APEX 11.38Rank 40Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7160, 5213, 1918

/ 100 compat

Projected

340.2 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 7160, 5213, 1918

Auto

67.2 20%

Teleop

198.3 58%

Endgame

74.3 22%

Strengths

· 1918 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 244, 6100, 8286

/ 100 compat

Projected

130 pts

~0.5 RP (district)

Teams: 244, 6100, 8286

Auto

22.1 17%

Teleop

75.4 57%

Endgame

35.8 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.38 · Blue 0.47

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score340.2pts

Blue projected score130pts

Red win probability93%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 29%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 210.1
Score range: 107–363
Upset likelihood: 7%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 414 vs event baseline 125.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

528.5Season APEX223.7

67.2Auto22.1

198.3Teleop75.4

74.3Endgame35.8

18Consistency31

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	55	24
teleop	162	74
endgame	42	52
foul	5	0
total	264	150

Result

Final score

264 – 150

Prediction correct · off by 48.1 pts

Match videos

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