FIM District Berrien Springs Event presented by Edgewater Automation

Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

161.5 – 126.23

61%39%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

188 – 132

Prediction correct · off by 16.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 355.2 ±10.5

9182Tech Tr1be

Season APEX 48.8Event APEX 11.95Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

302The Dragons

Season APEX 175.5Event APEX 71.57Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5535Bionic Bison

Season APEX 130.9Event APEX 77.98Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 483.2 ±9.8

2960Automation Nation

Season APEX 257Event APEX 52.3Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10666Green MachineZ

Season APEX 106Event APEX 17.95Rank 29Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3452GreengineerZ

Season APEX 120.2Event APEX 55.98Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9182, 302, 5535

/ 100 compat

Projected

161.5 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 9182, 302, 5535

Auto

30.1 19%

Teleop

86.4 55%

Endgame

39.3 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2960, 10666, 3452

/ 100 compat

Projected

126.2 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 2960, 10666, 3452

Auto

26.5 22%

Teleop

67.0 56%

Endgame

26.6 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.63 · Blue 1.34

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score161.5pts

Blue projected score126.2pts

Red win probability61%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 35.3
Score range: 101–187
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 320 vs event baseline 137.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

355.2Season APEX483.2

30.1Auto26.5

86.4Teleop67

39.3Endgame26.6

0Consistency19

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	28
teleop	91	98
endgame	72	6
foul	0	0
total	188	132

Result

Final score

188 – 132

Prediction correct · off by 16.1 pts

Match videos

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