FIM District Berrien Springs Event presented by Edgewater Automation

Playoff · Playoff Match 6 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

114.58 – 122.32

48%52%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

55 – 153

Prediction correct · off by 45.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 257.5 ±12.7

74Team CHAOS

Season APEX 129.3Event APEX 39.62Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7809FROST BYTE Robotics

Season APEX 40.1Event APEX 30.61Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7814RV Gearheads

Season APEX 88.1Event APEX 44.35Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 483.2 ±9.8

2960Automation Nation

Season APEX 257Event APEX 51.19Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10666Green MachineZ

Season APEX 106Event APEX 16.38Rank 29Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3452GreengineerZ

Season APEX 120.2Event APEX 54.75Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 74, 7809, 7814

/ 100 compat

Projected

114.6 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 74, 7809, 7814

Auto

11.7 10%

Teleop

65.4 58%

Endgame

35.2 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2960, 10666, 3452

/ 100 compat

Projected

122.3 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 2960, 10666, 3452

Auto

26.8 23%

Teleop

60.7 53%

Endgame

27.1 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.48 · Blue 1.6

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score114.6pts

Blue projected score122.3pts

Red win probability48%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -7.7
Score range: 91–146
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 208 vs event baseline 134.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

257.5Season APEX483.2

11.7Auto26.8

65.4Teleop60.7

35.2Endgame27.1

44Consistency15

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	26
teleop	21	101
endgame	12	26
foul	10	0
total	55	153

Result

Final score

55 – 153

Prediction correct · off by 45.1 pts

Match videos

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