FIM District Berrien Springs Event presented by Edgewater Automation

Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

213.59 – 130.51

74%26%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

125 – 89

Prediction correct · off by 65.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 478.5 ±9.5

54622Paw Robotics

Season APEX 195.9Event APEX 85.37Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10473Team Lance-B-Bot

Season APEX 48.7Event APEX 29.91Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

503Frog Force

Season APEX 233.9Event APEX 98.31Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 483.2 ±9.8

2960Automation Nation

Season APEX 257Event APEX 54.94Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10666Green MachineZ

Season APEX 106Event APEX 18.62Rank 29Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3452GreengineerZ

Season APEX 120.2Event APEX 56.95Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5462, 10473, 503

/ 100 compat

Projected

213.6 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 5462, 10473, 503

Auto

49.3 24%

Teleop

111.4 53%

Endgame

48.7 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2960, 10666, 3452

/ 100 compat

Projected

130.5 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 2960, 10666, 3452

Auto

27.9 23%

Teleop

62.7 52%

Endgame

30.4 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.03 · Blue 1.08

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score213.6pts

Blue projected score130.5pts

Red win probability74%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 83.1
Score range: 107–238
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 214 vs event baseline 134.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

478.5Season APEX483.2

49.3Auto27.9

111.4Teleop62.7

48.7Endgame30.4

38Consistency12

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	48	23
teleop	69	54
endgame	8	12
foul	0	0
total	125	89

Result

Final score

125 – 89

Prediction correct · off by 65.1 pts

Match videos

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