FIM District Berrien Springs Event presented by Edgewater Automation

Playoff · Playoff Match 13 R5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

242.58 – 168.3

72%28%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

0 – 173

Prediction missed · off by 123.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 498.5 ±9.9

6548Perry RAMBOTS

Season APEX 52.6Event APEX 38.99Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3620Average Joes

Season APEX 248.6Event APEX 79.69Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10633BeeBotics

Season APEX 197.3Event APEX 123.9Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 355.2 ±10.5

9182Tech Tr1be

Season APEX 48.8Event APEX 14.28Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

302The Dragons

Season APEX 175.5Event APEX 73.52Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5535Bionic Bison

Season APEX 130.9Event APEX 80.5Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6548, 3620, 10633

/ 100 compat

Projected

242.6 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 6548, 3620, 10633

Auto

45.4 19%

Teleop

138.1 57%

Endgame

57.4 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9182, 302, 5535

/ 100 compat

Projected

168.3 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 9182, 302, 5535

Auto

28.5 17%

Teleop

89.8 55%

Endgame

45.7 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.02 · Blue 0.98

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score242.6pts

Blue projected score168.3pts

Red win probability72%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 74.3
Score range: 143–268
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 173 vs event baseline 140.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

498.5Season APEX355.2

45.4Auto28.5

138.1Teleop89.8

57.4Endgame45.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	44	25
teleop	160	86
endgame	63	47
foul	0	15
total	0	173

Result

Final score

0 – 173

Prediction missed · off by 123.6 pts

Match videos

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