FIM District Berrien Springs Event presented by Edgewater Automation

Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

198.32 – 165.32

60%40%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

169 – 188

Prediction missed · off by 26 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 283.7 ±11.6

9208Eddies Circuit

Season APEX 78.9Event APEX 62.65Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4855Ramageddon

Season APEX 117.9Event APEX 61.28Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2959Robotarians

Season APEX 86.9Event APEX 74.39Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 355.2 ±10.5

9182Tech Tr1be

Season APEX 48.8Event APEX 13.15Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

302The Dragons

Season APEX 175.5Event APEX 72.76Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5535Bionic Bison

Season APEX 130.9Event APEX 79.41Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9208, 4855, 2959

/ 100 compat

Projected

198.3 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 9208, 4855, 2959

Auto

36.6 18%

Teleop

119.0 60%

Endgame

42.3 21%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9182, 302, 5535

/ 100 compat

Projected

165.3 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 9182, 302, 5535

Auto

29.3 18%

Teleop

87.0 54%

Endgame

44.1 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.72 · Blue 1.21

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score198.3pts

Blue projected score165.3pts

Red win probability60%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 33
Score range: 140–223
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 357 vs event baseline 140.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

283.7Season APEX355.2

36.6Auto29.3

119Teleop87

42.3Endgame44.1

12Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	42	23
teleop	106	109
endgame	16	56
foul	5	0
total	169	188

Result

Final score

169 – 188

Prediction missed · off by 26 pts

Match videos

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