FIM District Berrien Springs Event presented by Edgewater Automation

Qualification · Qualification 71

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

264.09 – 243.96

56%44%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

233 – 294

Prediction missed · off by 40.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 387.4 ±11.7

4237Team Lance-A-Bot

Season APEX 225.3Event APEX 171.48Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11431TechnoTigers

Season APEX 74Event APEX 41.87Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7814RV Gearheads

Season APEX 88.1Event APEX 50.74Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 516.7 ±9.5

2959Robotarians

Season APEX 86.9Event APEX 64.96Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

503Frog Force

Season APEX 233.9Event APEX 95.73Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

54622Paw Robotics

Season APEX 195.9Event APEX 83.27Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4237, 11431, 7814

/ 100 compat

Projected

264.1 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 4237, 11431, 7814

Auto

40.8 16%

Teleop

160.0 63%

Endgame

51.3 20%

Strengths

· 4237 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2959, 503, 5462

/ 100 compat

Projected

244 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 2959, 503, 5462

Auto

43.3 18%

Teleop

132.8 56%

Endgame

59.3 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.73 · Blue 1.51

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score264.1pts

Blue projected score244pts

Red win probability56%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 20.1
Score range: 221–287
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 527 vs event baseline 128.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

387.4Season APEX516.7

40.8Auto43.3

160Teleop132.8

51.3Endgame59.3

12Consistency63

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	65
teleop	105	171
endgame	109	58
foul	0	0
total	233	294

Result

Final score

233 – 294

Prediction missed · off by 40.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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