FIM District Berrien Springs Event presented by Edgewater Automation

Qualification · Qualification 6

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

275.82 – 213.25

69%31%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

181 – 194

Prediction missed · off by 57 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 565.2 ±8.8

4237Team Lance-A-Bot

Season APEX 225.3Event APEX 172.46Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

503Frog Force

Season APEX 233.9Event APEX 85.6Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10666Green MachineZ

Season APEX 106Event APEX 17.76Rank 29Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 497.4 ±9.8

4855Ramageddon

Season APEX 117.9Event APEX 59.76Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5535Bionic Bison

Season APEX 130.9Event APEX 83.86Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3620Average Joes

Season APEX 248.6Event APEX 69.63Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4237, 503, 10666

/ 100 compat

Projected

275.8 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 4237, 503, 10666

Auto

48.3 18%

Teleop

158.7 59%

Endgame

63.7 24%

Strengths

· 4237 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4855, 5535, 3620

/ 100 compat

Projected

213.3 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 4855, 5535, 3620

Auto

44.0 20%

Teleop

123.7 56%

Endgame

53.4 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2 · Blue 1.22

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score275.8pts

Blue projected score213.3pts

Red win probability69%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 62.6
Score range: 187–302
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 375 vs event baseline 144.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

565.2Season APEX497.4

48.3Auto44

158.7Teleop123.7

63.7Endgame53.4

58Consistency17

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	45	44
teleop	105	108
endgame	26	42
foul	5	0
total	181	194

Result

Final score

181 – 194

Prediction missed · off by 57 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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