FIM District Berrien Springs Event presented by Edgewater Automation

Qualification · Qualification 58

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

103.95 – 178.46

28%72%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

192 – 215

Prediction correct · off by 62.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 361.3 ±11.2

10666Green MachineZ

Season APEX 106Event APEX 14.66Rank 29Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5227Eagle Elite

Season APEX 59.4Event APEX 9.54Rank 32Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

54622Paw Robotics

Season APEX 195.9Event APEX 79.75Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 424.4 ±10.7

11399Timber Tech

Season APEX 51.6Event APEX 11.14Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10633BeeBotics

Season APEX 197.3Event APEX 109.93Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

302The Dragons

Season APEX 175.5Event APEX 57.39Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10666, 5227, 5462

/ 100 compat

Projected

104 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 10666, 5227, 5462

Auto

28.9 29%

Teleop

49.7 49%

Endgame

21.9 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11399, 10633, 302

/ 100 compat

Projected

178.5 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 11399, 10633, 302

Auto

19.8 11%

Teleop

108.5 60%

Endgame

51.9 29%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.1 · Blue 1.94

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score104pts

Blue projected score178.5pts

Red win probability28%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -74.5
Score range: 81–201
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 407 vs event baseline 127.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

361.3Season APEX424.4

28.9Auto19.8

49.7Teleop108.5

21.9Endgame51.9

36Consistency15

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	35
teleop	61	143
endgame	97	37
foul	10	0
total	192	215

Result

Final score

192 – 215

Prediction correct · off by 62.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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