FIM District Berrien Springs Event presented by Edgewater Automation

Qualification · Qualification 48

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

122.82 – 82.05

62%38%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

110 – 166

Prediction missed · off by 48.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 344.5 ±10.5

3452GreengineerZ

Season APEX 120.2Event APEX 57.39Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

302The Dragons

Season APEX 175.5Event APEX 53.02Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9182Tech Tr1be

Season APEX 48.8Event APEX 12.41Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 318.8 ±11.4

1940Tech Tigers 1940

Season APEX 35.1Event APEX -19.63Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10642Comstock Colts

Season APEX 49.8Event APEX 8.01Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

503Frog Force

Season APEX 233.9Event APEX 93.67Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3452, 302, 9182

/ 100 compat

Projected

122.8 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 3452, 302, 9182

Auto

30.0 25%

Teleop

58.2 49%

Endgame

31.5 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1940, 10642, 503

/ 100 compat

Projected

82.1 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 1940, 10642, 503

Auto

35.0 44%

Teleop

30.0 38%

Endgame

13.9 18%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.67 · Blue 1.28

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score122.8pts

Blue projected score82.1pts

Red win probability62%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 40.8
Score range: 60–145
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 276 vs event baseline 120.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

344.5Season APEX318.8

30Auto35

58.2Teleop30

31.5Endgame13.9

0Consistency127

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	40
teleop	63	83
endgame	25	43
foul	0	0
total	110	166

Result

Final score

110 – 166

Prediction missed · off by 48.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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