FIM District Berrien Springs Event presented by Edgewater Automation

Qualification · Qualification 45

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

124.58 – 123.8

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

207 – 170

Prediction correct · off by 64.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 384 ±11.7

7809FROST BYTE Robotics

Season APEX 40.1Event APEX 35.73Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2959Robotarians

Season APEX 86.9Event APEX 48.46Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2960Automation Nation

Season APEX 257Event APEX 40.39Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 394.9 ±11.7

7814RV Gearheads

Season APEX 88.1Event APEX 47.01Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1504Desperate Penguins

Season APEX 58.2Event APEX 35.24Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3620Average Joes

Season APEX 248.6Event APEX 41.55Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7809, 2959, 2960

/ 100 compat

Projected

124.6 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 7809, 2959, 2960

Auto

21.1 17%

Teleop

80.4 65%

Endgame

21.9 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7814, 1504, 3620

/ 100 compat

Projected

123.8 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 7814, 1504, 3620

Auto

18.8 16%

Teleop

87.5 72%

Endgame

14.8 12%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.52 · Blue 1.54

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score124.6pts

Blue projected score123.8pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 0.8
Score range: 102–147
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 377 vs event baseline 120.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

384Season APEX394.9

21.1Auto18.8

80.4Teleop87.5

21.9Endgame14.8

0Consistency14

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	29
teleop	107	82
endgame	74	59
foul	10	0
total	207	170

Result

Final score

207 – 170

Prediction correct · off by 64.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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