FIM District Berrien Springs Event presented by Edgewater Automation

Qualification · Qualification 41

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

102.37 – 151.43

35%65%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

147 – 320

Prediction correct · off by 106.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 215.8 ±12.1

9208Eddies Circuit

Season APEX 78.9Event APEX 49.97Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9182Tech Tr1be

Season APEX 48.8Event APEX 11.02Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7814RV Gearheads

Season APEX 88.1Event APEX 41.38Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 459 ±10.7

1504Desperate Penguins

Season APEX 58.2Event APEX 12.14Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4237Team Lance-A-Bot

Season APEX 225.3Event APEX 109.96Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

302The Dragons

Season APEX 175.5Event APEX 29.33Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9208, 9182, 7814

/ 100 compat

Projected

102.4 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 9208, 9182, 7814

Auto

27.1 28%

Teleop

55.3 57%

Endgame

14.8 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1504, 4237, 302

/ 100 compat

Projected

151.4 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 1504, 4237, 302

Auto

20.6 14%

Teleop

83.9 58%

Endgame

39.2 27%

Strengths

· 4237 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.15 · Blue 1.79

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score102.4pts

Blue projected score151.4pts

Red win probability35%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -49.1
Score range: 81–172
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 467 vs event baseline 117.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

215.8Season APEX459

27.1Auto20.6

55.3Teleop83.9

14.8Endgame39.2

47Consistency25

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	29	45
teleop	82	235
endgame	36	40
foul	0	0
total	147	320

Result

Final score

147 – 320

Prediction correct · off by 106.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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