FIM District Berrien Springs Event presented by Edgewater Automation

Qualification · Qualification 38

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

158.9 – 107.71

65%35%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

189 – 48

Prediction correct · off by 44.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 387.3 ±10.8

5535Bionic Bison

Season APEX 130.9Event APEX 53.86Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5182Chieftainators

Season APEX 22.5Event APEX 6.51Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

503Frog Force

Season APEX 233.9Event APEX 98.53Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 194.7 ±13.9

5227Eagle Elite

Season APEX 59.4Event APEX 28.62Rank 32Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11511CRTechnic

Season APEX 61.3Event APEX 39.44Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11431TechnoTigers

Season APEX 74Event APEX 39.65Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5535, 5182, 503

/ 100 compat

Projected

158.9 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 5535, 5182, 503

Auto

33.6 22%

Teleop

82.3 54%

Endgame

37.3 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5227, 11511, 11431

/ 100 compat

Projected

107.7 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 5227, 11511, 11431

Auto

22.4 21%

Teleop

48.1 45%

Endgame

36.1 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.86 · Blue 1.14

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score158.9pts

Blue projected score107.7pts

Red win probability65%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 51.2
Score range: 87–180
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 237 vs event baseline 117.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

387.3Season APEX194.7

33.6Auto22.4

82.3Teleop48.1

37.3Endgame36.1

121Consistency3

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	47	21
teleop	104	23
endgame	38	4
foul	0	0
total	189	48

Result

Final score

189 – 48

Prediction correct · off by 44.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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