FIM District Berrien Springs Event presented by Edgewater Automation

Qualification · Qualification 35

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

126.39 – 179.33

34%66%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

204 – 172

Prediction missed · off by 42.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 254.6 ±11.6

10642Comstock Colts

Season APEX 49.8Event APEX 6.82Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2959Robotarians

Season APEX 86.9Event APEX 33.78Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4855Ramageddon

Season APEX 117.9Event APEX 85.79Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 414.7 ±11.1

7814RV Gearheads

Season APEX 88.1Event APEX 41.72Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

74Team CHAOS

Season APEX 129.3Event APEX 24.5Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10633BeeBotics

Season APEX 197.3Event APEX 113.11Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10642, 2959, 4855

/ 100 compat

Projected

126.4 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 10642, 2959, 4855

Auto

29.4 24%

Teleop

68.6 57%

Endgame

23.1 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7814, 74, 10633

/ 100 compat

Projected

179.3 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 7814, 74, 10633

Auto

22.7 12%

Teleop

109.9 60%

Endgame

51.9 28%

Strengths

· 10633 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.17 · Blue 1.93

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score126.4pts

Blue projected score179.3pts

Red win probability34%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -52.9
Score range: 105–200
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 376 vs event baseline 116.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

254.6Season APEX414.7

29.4Auto22.7

68.6Teleop109.9

23.1Endgame51.9

4Consistency51

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	17
teleop	132	109
endgame	51	41
foul	0	5
total	204	172

Result

Final score

204 – 172

Prediction missed · off by 42.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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