FIM District Berrien Springs Event presented by Edgewater Automation

Qualification · Qualification 31

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

19.13 – 71.79

34%66%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

99 – 103

Prediction correct · off by 55.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 350.3 ±12.4

1940Tech Tigers 1940

Season APEX 35.1Event APEX 2.65Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1504Desperate Penguins

Season APEX 58.2Event APEX -6.47Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2960Automation Nation

Season APEX 257Event APEX 22.95Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 300.4 ±11

4325RoboRangers

Season APEX 63.5Event APEX 19.43Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5535Bionic Bison

Season APEX 130.9Event APEX 52.55Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10666Green MachineZ

Season APEX 106Event APEX -0.19Rank 29Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1940, 1504, 2960

/ 100 compat

Projected

19.1 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 1940, 1504, 2960

Auto

17.3 100%

Teleop

5.5 43%

Endgame

-9.9 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4325, 5535, 10666

/ 100 compat

Projected

71.8 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 4325, 5535, 10666

Auto

20.9 29%

Teleop

22.5 31%

Endgame

29.2 40%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.17 · Blue 1.83

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score19.1pts

Blue projected score71.8pts

Red win probability34%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -52.7
Score range: -2–93
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 202 vs event baseline 116.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

350.3Season APEX300.4

17.3Auto20.9

5.5Teleop22.5

-9.9Endgame29.2

71Consistency26

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	23
teleop	52	61
endgame	21	19
foul	0	0
total	99	103

Result

Final score

99 – 103

Prediction correct · off by 55.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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