FIM District Berrien Springs Event presented by Edgewater Automation

Qualification · Qualification 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

149.43 – 109.56

62%38%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

137 – 59

Prediction correct · off by 31.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 282.3 ±12.4

7809FROST BYTE Robotics

Season APEX 40.1Event APEX 27.93Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11491Bloomingdale Cardinals

Season APEX 44.9Event APEX 7.52Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10633BeeBotics

Season APEX 197.3Event APEX 113.98Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 270 ±12.4

302The Dragons

Season APEX 175.5Event APEX 77.71Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5227Eagle Elite

Season APEX 59.4Event APEX 15.72Rank 32Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1940Tech Tigers 1940

Season APEX 35.1Event APEX 16.13Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7809, 11491, 10633

/ 100 compat

Projected

149.4 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 7809, 11491, 10633

Auto

22.7 15%

Teleop

88.3 58%

Endgame

42.5 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 302, 5227, 1940

/ 100 compat

Projected

109.6 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 302, 5227, 1940

Auto

26.5 26%

Teleop

43.9 43%

Endgame

32.4 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.77 · Blue 1.22

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score149.4pts

Blue projected score109.6pts

Red win probability62%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 39.9
Score range: 84–175
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 196 vs event baseline 144.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

282.3Season APEX270

22.7Auto26.5

88.3Teleop43.9

42.5Endgame32.4

5Consistency31

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	33
teleop	76	18
endgame	45	8
foul	0	0
total	137	59

Result

Final score

137 – 59

Prediction correct · off by 31.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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