FIM District Berrien Springs Event presented by Edgewater Automation

Qualification · Qualification 23

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

130.07 – 103.2

58%42%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

106 – 173

Prediction missed · off by 46.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 246.8 ±12.2

5535Bionic Bison

Season APEX 130.9Event APEX 66.99Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9758Pantron-X

Season APEX 37Event APEX 26.54Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9208Eddies Circuit

Season APEX 78.9Event APEX 36.54Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 377.4 ±11.2

11511CRTechnic

Season APEX 61.3Event APEX 11.61Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

54622Paw Robotics

Season APEX 195.9Event APEX 52.91Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3452GreengineerZ

Season APEX 120.2Event APEX 38.68Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5535, 9758, 9208

/ 100 compat

Projected

130.1 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 5535, 9758, 9208

Auto

34.1 26%

Teleop

73.3 55%

Endgame

26.0 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11511, 5462, 3452

/ 100 compat

Projected

103.2 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 11511, 5462, 3452

Auto

36.2 36%

Teleop

37.2 37%

Endgame

28.2 28%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.62 · Blue 1.39

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score130.1pts

Blue projected score103.2pts

Red win probability58%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 26.9
Score range: 83–150
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 279 vs event baseline 108.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

246.8Season APEX377.4

34.1Auto36.2

73.3Teleop37.2

26Endgame28.2

144Consistency55

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	36	43
teleop	45	75
endgame	25	50
foul	0	5
total	106	173

Result

Final score

106 – 173

Prediction missed · off by 46.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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