FIM District Berrien Springs Event presented by Edgewater Automation

Qualification · Qualification 22

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

80.75 – 77.6

51%49%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

154 – 27

Prediction correct · off by 61.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 550.4 ±9.3

302The Dragons

Season APEX 175.5Event APEX 22.59Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2960Automation Nation

Season APEX 257Event APEX -12Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4855Ramageddon

Season APEX 117.9Event APEX 70.16Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 112 ±13.9

9549The Mechadogs

Season APEX 52.7Event APEX 27.46Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2604Metal and Soul

Season APEX 24.2Event APEX 26.15Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1940Tech Tigers 1940

Season APEX 35.1Event APEX 23.99Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 302, 2960, 4855

/ 100 compat

Projected

80.8 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 302, 2960, 4855

Auto

30.3 35%

Teleop

42.9 49%

Endgame

13.9 16%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9549, 2604, 1940

/ 100 compat

Projected

77.6 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 9549, 2604, 1940

Auto

24.2 32%

Teleop

29.1 39%

Endgame

21.9 29%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.53 · Blue 1.37

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score80.8pts

Blue projected score77.6pts

Red win probability51%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 3.2
Score range: 58–101
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 181 vs event baseline 109.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

550.4Season APEX112

30.3Auto24.2

42.9Teleop29.1

13.9Endgame21.9

152Consistency209

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	12
teleop	96	6
endgame	29	4
foul	5	5
total	154	27

Result

Final score

154 – 27

Prediction correct · off by 61.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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