FIM District Berrien Springs Event presented by Edgewater Automation

Qualification · Qualification 10

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

68.42 – 69.56

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

126 – 91

Prediction missed · off by 39.5 points

Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 312.9 ±12.2

9549The Mechadogs

Season APEX 52.7Event APEX 7.29Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5535Bionic Bison

Season APEX 130.9Event APEX 55.43Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

74Team CHAOS

Season APEX 129.3Event APEX 5.7Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 258.9 ±12.2

10666Green MachineZ

Season APEX 106Event APEX 51.71Rank 29Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9208Eddies Circuit

Season APEX 78.9Event APEX 7.29Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11431TechnoTigers

Season APEX 74Event APEX 10.56Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9549, 5535, 74

/ 100 compat

Projected

68.4 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 9549, 5535, 74

Auto

28.3 41%

Teleop

29.6 43%

Endgame

10.3 15%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10666, 9208, 11431

/ 100 compat

Projected

69.6 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 10666, 9208, 11431

Auto

20.5 30%

Teleop

38.8 57%

Endgame

8.5 13%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.47 · Blue 1.5

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score68.4pts

Blue projected score69.6pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -1.1
Score range: 51–87
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 217 vs event baseline 95.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

312.9Season APEX258.9

28.3Auto20.5

29.6Teleop38.8

10.3Endgame8.5

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	29
teleop	62	47
endgame	37	15
foul	0	0
total	126	91

Result

Final score

126 – 91

Prediction missed · off by 39.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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