FIM District Belleville Event presented by DTE

Playoff · Playoff Match 6 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

112.61 – 134.75

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

137 – 165

Prediction correct · off by 27.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 352.5 ±12.4

6029Railbots

Season APEX 47.7Event APEX 27.24Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9204Aluminum Armada

Season APEX 57.5Event APEX 21.16Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6528Terror Bytes

Season APEX 247.3Event APEX 64.21Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 220.5 ±13.9

5053Lakers

Season APEX 94.3Event APEX 84.55Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4737Atomigators

Season APEX 68.5Event APEX 47.49Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11505Kensington Woods Robotics

Season APEX 57.7Event APEX 2.71Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6029, 9204, 6528

/ 100 compat

Projected

112.6 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 6029, 9204, 6528

Auto

35.3 32%

Teleop

50.0 46%

Endgame

24.1 22%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5053, 4737, 11505

/ 100 compat

Projected

134.8 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 5053, 4737, 11505

Auto

17.6 13%

Teleop

77.5 58%

Endgame

37.9 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.49 · Blue 1.71

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score112.6pts

Blue projected score134.8pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -22.1
Score range: 88–160
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 302 vs event baseline 140.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

352.5Season APEX220.5

35.3Auto17.6

50Teleop77.5

24.1Endgame37.9

80Consistency4

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	32	20
teleop	72	88
endgame	33	57
foul	0	0
total	137	165

Result

Final score

137 – 165

Prediction correct · off by 27.3 pts

Match videos

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