Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
85.01 – 195.73
20%80%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
205 – 228
Prediction correct · off by 76.1 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 255.7 ±12.7
Season APEX 78.1Event APEX 49.93Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 57.3Event APEX 25.79Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 120.3Event APEX 9.29Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 561.2 ±9.9
Season APEX 75.2Event APEX -3.05Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 253.6Event APEX 98.45Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 232.4Event APEX 100.33Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 6120, 6344, 1250
47
/ 100 compatProjected
85 pts
~0.9 RP (district)
Teams: 6120, 6344, 1250
Auto
22.2 26%
Teleop
44.4 53%
Endgame
17.2 21%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 46%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 9751, 7220, 8373
76
/ 100 compatProjected
195.7 pts
~2.2 RP (district)
Teams: 9751, 7220, 8373
Auto
33.1 17%
Teleop
117.6 60%
Endgame
43.8 23%
Strengths
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 46%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.9 · Blue 2.23
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score85pts
Blue projected score195.7pts
Red win probability20%
Event bonus sample188alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 46%, blue 59%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -110.7
- Score range
- 60–221
- Upset likelihood
- 20%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
255.7Season APEX561.2
22.2Auto33.1
44.4Teleop117.6
17.2Endgame43.8
12Consistency30
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 12 | 39 |
| teleop | 112 | 129 |
| endgame | 61 | 60 |
| foul | 20 | 0 |
| total | 205 | 228 |
Result
Final score
205 – 228
Prediction correct · off by 76.1 pts
Match videos
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