Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
194.37 – 167.99
58%42%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
209 – 245
Prediction missed · off by 45.8 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 561.2 ±9.9
Season APEX 75.2Event APEX -1.83Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 253.6Event APEX 96.47Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 232.4Event APEX 99.73Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 329.4 ±11.1
Season APEX 99Event APEX 80.86Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 181.6Event APEX 60.94Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 48.8Event APEX 26.19Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 9751, 7220, 8373
77
/ 100 compatProjected
194.4 pts
~1.8 RP (district)
Teams: 9751, 7220, 8373
Auto
29.9 15%
Teleop
118.1 61%
Endgame
46.2 24%
Strengths
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 59%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 5708, 245, 5498
70
/ 100 compatProjected
168 pts
~1.4 RP (district)
Teams: 5708, 245, 5498
Auto
28.1 17%
Teleop
95.8 58%
Endgame
42.2 25%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 59%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.8 · Blue 1.36
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score194.4pts
Blue projected score168pts
Red win probability58%
Event bonus sample188alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 59%, blue 48%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 26.4
- Score range
- 144–218
- Upset likelihood
- 42%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
561.2Season APEX329.4
29.9Auto28.1
118.1Teleop95.8
46.2Endgame42.2
39Consistency32
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 47 | 38 |
| teleop | 117 | 110 |
| endgame | 40 | 82 |
| foul | 5 | 15 |
| total | 209 | 245 |
Result
Final score
209 – 245
Prediction missed · off by 45.8 pts
Match videos
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