FIM District Belleville Event presented by DTE

Playoff · Playoff Match 11 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

362.52 – 261.8

78%22%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

206 – 223

Prediction missed · off by 97.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 568.2 ±10.7

6618WARHBOTS

Season APEX 64.1Event APEX 44.38Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3656Dexter Dreadbots

Season APEX 241.4Event APEX 163.75Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3641The Flying Toasters

Season APEX 262.7Event APEX 154.39Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 592.9 ±9.9

6538Linc-Bots

Season APEX 74.5Event APEX 35.11Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4391BraveBots

Season APEX 284.8Event APEX 120.46Rank 5Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6615Bellevillains

Season APEX 233.6Event APEX 106.23Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6618, 3656, 3641

/ 100 compat

Projected

362.5 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 6618, 3656, 3641

Auto

77.7 22%

Teleop

206.1 57%

Endgame

75.5 21%

Strengths

· 3656 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6538, 4391, 6615

/ 100 compat

Projected

261.8 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 6538, 4391, 6615

Auto

55.0 21%

Teleop

147.2 57%

Endgame

56.3 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.22 · Blue 1.03

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score362.5pts

Blue projected score261.8pts

Red win probability78%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 100.7
Score range: 236–389
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 429 vs event baseline 144.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

568.2Season APEX592.9

77.7Auto55

206.1Teleop147.2

75.5Endgame56.3

0Consistency4

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	83	66
teleop	89	117
endgame	19	35
foul	15	5
total	206	223

Result

Final score

206 – 223

Prediction missed · off by 97.7 pts

Match videos

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