FIM District Belleville Event presented by DTE

Qualification · Qualification 65

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

128.07 – 167.18

38%62%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

133 – 45

Prediction missed · off by 63.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 230.7 ±12.8

9455DinoMights

Season APEX 71.1Event APEX 18.38Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1188The Ravens

Season APEX 115.3Event APEX 91.99Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8623Michigan FC

Season APEX 44.3Event APEX 17.7Rank 33Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 415.7 ±12.4

7220Steel Falcons

Season APEX 253.6Event APEX 94.52Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4405The Atoms Family

Season APEX 109.1Event APEX 28.64Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

66Grizzly Robotics

Season APEX 53Event APEX 44.02Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9455, 1188, 8623

/ 100 compat

Projected

128.1 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 9455, 1188, 8623

Auto

28.9 23%

Teleop

78.7 62%

Endgame

19.4 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7220, 4405, 66

/ 100 compat

Projected

167.2 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 7220, 4405, 66

Auto

31.4 19%

Teleop

95.7 59%

Endgame

35.3 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.32 · Blue 1.85

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score128.1pts

Blue projected score167.2pts

Red win probability38%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -39.1
Score range: 104–191
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 178 vs event baseline 133.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

230.7Season APEX415.7

28.9Auto31.4

78.7Teleop95.7

19.4Endgame35.3

84Consistency1

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	16
teleop	59	18
endgame	23	11
foul	20	0
total	133	45

Result

Final score

133 – 45

Prediction missed · off by 63.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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