Qualification · Qualification 47
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
243.74 – 201.29
63%37%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
295 – 127
Prediction correct · off by 62.8 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 552.4 ±10.7
Season APEX 57.3Event APEX 26.82Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 232.4Event APEX 77.6Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 262.7Event APEX 139.32Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 359.3 ±11.7
Season APEX 233.6Event APEX 120.7Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 78.1Event APEX 53.67Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 47.6Event APEX 26.92Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 6344, 8373, 3641
82
/ 100 compatProjected
243.7 pts
~1.9 RP (district)
Teams: 6344, 8373, 3641
Auto
50.1 21%
Teleop
136.4 56%
Endgame
55.6 23%
Strengths
- · 3641 anchors offense
- · Well-balanced across phases
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 58%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 6615, 6120, 5263
81
/ 100 compatProjected
201.3 pts
~1.4 RP (district)
Teams: 6615, 6120, 5263
Auto
32.2 16%
Teleop
116.1 58%
Endgame
50.4 25%
Strengths
- · 6615 anchors offense
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 58%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.88 · Blue 1.4
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score243.7pts
Blue projected score201.3pts
Red win probability63%
Event bonus sample188alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 58%, blue 61%
Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 42.5
- Score range
- 179–266
- Upset likelihood
- 37%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
552.4Season APEX359.3
50.1Auto32.2
136.4Teleop116.1
55.6Endgame50.4
34Consistency38
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 76 | 29 |
| teleop | 154 | 81 |
| endgame | 65 | 17 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 295 | 127 |
Result
Final score
295 – 127
Prediction correct · off by 62.8 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
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