Qualification · Qualification 45
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
144.48 – 36.85
79%21%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
200 – 54
Prediction correct · off by 36.3 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 503.7 ±10.7
Season APEX 181.6Event APEX 39.79Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 253.6Event APEX 77.11Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 68.5Event APEX 27.58Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 175.9 ±13.9
Season APEX 43.3Event APEX 20.07Rank 38Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 55.5Event APEX 12.47Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 77.1Event APEX 4.31Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 245, 7220, 4737
64
/ 100 compatProjected
144.5 pts
~2.2 RP (district)
Teams: 245, 7220, 4737
Auto
48.1 34%
Teleop
78.7 55%
Endgame
16.4 11%
Strengths
- · Strong autonomous coverage
Weaknesses
- · Thin endgame coverage
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 55%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 4395, 8832, 10672
18
/ 100 compatProjected
36.9 pts
~0.9 RP (district)
Teams: 4395, 8832, 10672
Auto
19.4 55%
Teleop
4.5 13%
Endgame
11.5 32%
Strengths
- · Strong autonomous coverage
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 55%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.18 · Blue 0.95
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score144.5pts
Blue projected score36.9pts
Red win probability79%
Event bonus sample188alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 55%, blue 49%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 107.6
- Score range
- 14–167
- Upset likelihood
- 21%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
503.7Season APEX175.9
48.1Auto19.4
78.7Teleop4.5
16.4Endgame11.5
5Consistency17
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 20 | 9 |
| teleop | 136 | 29 |
| endgame | 44 | 16 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 200 | 54 |
Result
Final score
200 – 54
Prediction correct · off by 36.3 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
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