FIM District Belleville Event presented by DTE

Qualification · Qualification 37

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

177.2 – 216.31

38%62%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

348 – 322

Prediction missed · off by 138.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 563.9 ±10.7

3641The Flying Toasters

Season APEX 262.7Event APEX 108.01Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5263Robo-Bucs

Season APEX 47.6Event APEX 9.16Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7220Steel Falcons

Season APEX 253.6Event APEX 60.03Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 379 ±12.4

3656Dexter Dreadbots

Season APEX 241.4Event APEX 163.89Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4395Dundee Vi-Borgs

Season APEX 43.3Event APEX 11.85Rank 38Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5053Lakers

Season APEX 94.3Event APEX 40.57Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3641, 5263, 7220

/ 100 compat

Projected

177.2 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 3641, 5263, 7220

Auto

59.9 34%

Teleop

83.9 48%

Endgame

32.2 18%

Strengths

· 3641 anchors offense
· Strong autonomous coverage
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3656, 4395, 5053

/ 100 compat

Projected

216.3 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 3656, 4395, 5053

Auto

35.2 17%

Teleop

129.5 62%

Endgame

45.1 21%

Strengths

· 3656 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.44 · Blue 1.89

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score177.2pts

Blue projected score216.3pts

Red win probability38%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -39.1
Score range: 156–237
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 670 vs event baseline 117.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

563.9Season APEX379

59.9Auto35.2

83.9Teleop129.5

32.2Endgame45.1

23Consistency40

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	73	57
teleop	224	169
endgame	46	91
foul	5	5
total	348	322

Result

Final score

348 – 322

Prediction missed · off by 138.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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