FIM District Belleville Event presented by DTE

Qualification · Qualification 31

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

126.95 – 226.51

22%78%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

112 – 156

Prediction correct · off by 42.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 535.3 ±10.7

7220Steel Falcons

Season APEX 253.6Event APEX 68.23Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10656RataToaster

Season APEX 34.4Event APEX 3.36Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6528Terror Bytes

Season APEX 247.3Event APEX 55.36Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 347.7 ±11.7

9204Aluminum Armada

Season APEX 57.5Event APEX 29.72Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3656Dexter Dreadbots

Season APEX 241.4Event APEX 179.57Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5498The Wired Devils

Season APEX 48.8Event APEX 17.22Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7220, 10656, 6528

/ 100 compat

Projected

127 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 7220, 10656, 6528

Auto

42.7 34%

Teleop

64.1 51%

Endgame

19.0 15%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9204, 3656, 5498

/ 100 compat

Projected

226.5 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 9204, 3656, 5498

Auto

35.2 16%

Teleop

137.6 62%

Endgame

48.7 22%

Strengths

· 3656 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.08 · Blue 2.09

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score127pts

Blue projected score226.5pts

Red win probability22%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -99.6
Score range: 106–248
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 268 vs event baseline 117.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

535.3Season APEX347.7

42.7Auto35.2

64.1Teleop137.6

19Endgame48.7

75Consistency119

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	55	54
teleop	38	80
endgame	19	22
foul	0	0
total	112	156

Result

Final score

112 – 156

Prediction correct · off by 42.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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