FIM District Belleville Event presented by DTE

Qualification · Qualification 23

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

103.54 – 94.32

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

125 – 110

Prediction correct · off by 18.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 174.4 ±13.3

4395Dundee Vi-Borgs

Season APEX 43.3Event APEX -8.82Rank 38Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6120CyberStangs

Season APEX 78.1Event APEX 65.74Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

66Grizzly Robotics

Season APEX 53Event APEX 46.62Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 204.1 ±13.3

6538Linc-Bots

Season APEX 74.5Event APEX 49.51Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1528MTR (Monroe Trojan Robotics)

Season APEX 35.3Event APEX 14.57Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5053Lakers

Season APEX 94.3Event APEX 30.24Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4395, 6120, 66

/ 100 compat

Projected

103.5 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 4395, 6120, 66

Auto

25.0 25%

Teleop

42.3 43%

Endgame

31.1 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6538, 1528, 5053

/ 100 compat

Projected

94.3 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 6538, 1528, 5053

Auto

19.4 21%

Teleop

60.7 65%

Endgame

12.7 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.66 · Blue 1.53

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score103.5pts

Blue projected score94.3pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 9.2
Score range: 73–125
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 235 vs event baseline 118.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

174.4Season APEX204.1

25Auto19.4

42.3Teleop60.7

31.1Endgame12.7

125Consistency32

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	34	17
teleop	75	60
endgame	16	28
foul	0	5
total	125	110

Result

Final score

125 – 110

Prediction correct · off by 18.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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