Qualification · Qualification 17
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
58.88 – 124.04
31%69%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
20 – 132
Prediction correct · off by 23.4 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 116.4 ±13.9
Season APEX 34.4Event APEX -4.44Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 37.7Event APEX 28.62Rank 39Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 44.3Event APEX 34.7Rank 33Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 379.6 ±14
Season APEX 262.7Event APEX 61.09Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 41.7Event APEX 56.63Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 76
Season APEX 75.2Event APEX 6.32Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 10656, 6190, 8623
39
/ 100 compatProjected
58.9 pts
~1.1 RP (district)
Teams: 10656, 6190, 8623
Auto
0.7 1%
Teleop
23.6 42%
Endgame
31.9 57%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 41%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 3641, 94, 9751
73
/ 100 compatProjected
124 pts
~2.0 RP (district)
Teams: 3641, 94, 9751
Auto
14.6 12%
Teleop
61.4 52%
Endgame
41.9 36%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
RP bonus probability
Energized: 41%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.07 · Blue 1.96
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score58.9pts
Blue projected score124pts
Red win probability31%
Event bonus sample188alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 41%, blue 53%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -65.2
- Score range
- 40–143
- Upset likelihood
- 31%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
116.4Season APEX379.6
0.7Auto14.6
23.6Teleop61.4
31.9Endgame41.9
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 19 | 33 |
| teleop | 1 | 64 |
| endgame | 0 | 35 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 20 | 132 |
Result
Final score
20 – 132
Prediction correct · off by 23.4 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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