Qualification · Qualification 15
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
140.47 – 102.39
62%38%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
227 – 46
Prediction correct · off by 71.5 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 576.1 ±10.7
Season APEX 233.6Event APEX 73.34Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 57.7Event APEX 18.76Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 284.8Event APEX 48.37Rank 5Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 178.8 ±13.9
Season APEX 55.5Event APEX 33.19Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 54.8Event APEX 18.12Rank 36Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 68.5Event APEX 51.08Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 6615, 11505, 4391
83
/ 100 compatProjected
140.5 pts
~1.9 RP (district)
Teams: 6615, 11505, 4391
Auto
30.2 22%
Teleop
61.5 44%
Endgame
47.6 34%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 58%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 8832, 9735, 4737
65
/ 100 compatProjected
102.4 pts
~1.3 RP (district)
Teams: 8832, 9735, 4737
Auto
42.5 42%
Teleop
48.3 47%
Endgame
11.2 11%
Strengths
- · Strong autonomous coverage
Weaknesses
- · Thin endgame coverage
RP bonus probability
Energized: 58%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.86 · Blue 1.27
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score140.5pts
Blue projected score102.4pts
Red win probability62%
Event bonus sample188alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 58%, blue 46%
Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 38.1
- Score range
- 84–158
- Upset likelihood
- 38%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
576.1Season APEX178.8
30.2Auto42.5
61.5Teleop48.3
47.6Endgame11.2
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 27 | 20 |
| teleop | 147 | 15 |
| endgame | 53 | 11 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 227 | 46 |
Result
Final score
227 – 46
Prediction correct · off by 71.5 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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