FIM District Belleville Event presented by DTE

Qualification · Qualification 13

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

62 – 79.26

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

55 – 49

Prediction missed · off by 18.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 166.4 ±13.3

6538Linc-Bots

Season APEX 74.5Event APEX 19.38Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9204Aluminum Armada

Season APEX 57.5Event APEX 35.16Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10656RataToaster

Season APEX 34.4Event APEX 7.46Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 379.2 ±12.4

8373The Flying Octopi

Season APEX 232.4Event APEX 38.54Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4405The Atoms Family

Season APEX 109.1Event APEX 4.8Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6190Cybernetic Crusaders

Season APEX 37.7Event APEX 35.92Rank 39Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6538, 9204, 10656

/ 100 compat

Projected

62 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 6538, 9204, 10656

Auto

25.4 39%

Teleop

15.8 24%

Endgame

23.3 36%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8373, 4405, 6190

/ 100 compat

Projected

79.3 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 8373, 4405, 6190

Auto

8.2 11%

Teleop

47.7 62%

Endgame

21.6 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.38 · Blue 1.63

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score62pts

Blue projected score79.3pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -17.3
Score range: 43–98
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 104 vs event baseline 106.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

166.4Season APEX379.2

25.4Auto8.2

15.8Teleop47.7

23.3Endgame21.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	11
teleop	24	31
endgame	5	7
foul	5	0
total	55	49

Result

Final score

55 – 49

Prediction missed · off by 18.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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