FIM District Battle Creek Event presented by BlueOval Battery Park Michigan

Playoff · Playoff Match 6 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

162.26 – 97.94

69%31%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

242 – 100

Prediction correct · off by 40.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 239.7 ±12.2

5150Hybrid Hornets

Season APEX 76.5Event APEX 51.13Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11496Jurassic JayHawks

Season APEX 71.6Event APEX 24.1Rank 12Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8126Control Freaks

Season APEX 91.6Event APEX 87.03Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 313.2 ±12.8

5577Kinematic Wolves

Season APEX 176.8Event APEX 38.31Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5227Eagle Elite

Season APEX 59.4Event APEX 42.4Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9205Technical Marauders1

Season APEX 77Event APEX 17.23Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5150, 11496, 8126

/ 100 compat

Projected

162.3 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 5150, 11496, 8126

Auto

21.6 14%

Teleop

96.9 61%

Endgame

39.5 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5577, 5227, 9205

/ 100 compat

Projected

97.9 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 5577, 5227, 9205

Auto

19.8 21%

Teleop

45.1 48%

Endgame

29.0 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.98 · Blue 1.19

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score162.3pts

Blue projected score97.9pts

Red win probability69%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 64.3
Score range: 68–192
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 342 vs event baseline 169.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

239.7Season APEX313.2

21.6Auto19.8

96.9Teleop45.1

39.5Endgame29

10Consistency20

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	52	24
teleop	140	45
endgame	50	31
foul	0	0
total	242	100

Result

Final score

242 – 100

Prediction correct · off by 40.9 pts

Match videos

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