FIM District Battle Creek Event presented by BlueOval Battery Park Michigan

Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

131.37 – 103.86

58%42%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

141 – 121

Prediction correct · off by 13.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 252.7 ±11.6

3658Robo - Beavers

Season APEX 74.4Event APEX 55.01Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4855Ramageddon

Season APEX 117.9Event APEX 68.18Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10651Gear Cats

Season APEX 60.4Event APEX 8.18Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 304.7 ±11.7

1502Technical Difficulties

Season APEX 122.6Event APEX 79.07Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11460Olivet Eaglebots

Season APEX 62.9Event APEX 1.32Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4810I AM Robot

Season APEX 119.2Event APEX 23.47Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3658, 4855, 10651

/ 100 compat

Projected

131.4 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 3658, 4855, 10651

Auto

39.3 31%

Teleop

62.8 50%

Endgame

24.3 19%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1502, 11460, 4810

/ 100 compat

Projected

103.9 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 1502, 11460, 4810

Auto

16.2 16%

Teleop

56.4 56%

Endgame

28.5 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.72 · Blue 1.41

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score131.4pts

Blue projected score103.9pts

Red win probability58%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 27.5
Score range: 73–162
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 262 vs event baseline 169.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

252.7Season APEX304.7

39.3Auto16.2

62.8Teleop56.4

24.3Endgame28.5

53Consistency12

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	37	28
teleop	74	50
endgame	25	43
foul	5	0
total	141	121

Result

Final score

141 – 121

Prediction correct · off by 13.4 pts

Match videos

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