FIM District Battle Creek Event presented by BlueOval Battery Park Michigan

Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

206.46 – 221.83

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

158 – 264

Prediction correct · off by 45.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 364.6 ±11.1

7211Hollywood

Season APEX 108.6Event APEX 71.99Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5248Robo-Saxons

Season APEX 60.1Event APEX 34.17Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

54622Paw Robotics

Season APEX 195.9Event APEX 100.3Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 299.6 ±11

5152Alotobots

Season APEX 119.8Event APEX 111.07Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10654Tiger Bytes

Season APEX 50.5Event APEX 27.78Rank 35Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9215T-Town Tech

Season APEX 129.3Event APEX 82.98Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7211, 5248, 5462

/ 100 compat

Projected

206.5 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 7211, 5248, 5462

Auto

37.0 18%

Teleop

111.9 55%

Endgame

54.8 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5152, 10654, 9215

/ 100 compat

Projected

221.8 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 5152, 10654, 9215

Auto

44.0 20%

Teleop

114.8 53%

Endgame

59.3 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.54 · Blue 1.61

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score206.5pts

Blue projected score221.8pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -15.4
Score range: 175–253
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 422 vs event baseline 174.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

364.6Season APEX299.6

37Auto44

111.9Teleop114.8

54.8Endgame59.3

32Consistency40

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	40	50
teleop	87	113
endgame	26	86
foul	5	15
total	158	264

Result

Final score

158 – 264

Prediction correct · off by 45.3 pts

Match videos

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