FIM District Battle Creek Event presented by BlueOval Battery Park Michigan

Qualification · Qualification 9

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

130.63 – 106.13

58%42%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

282 – 227

Prediction correct · off by 136.1 points

Limited current-season data (8 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 347.1 ±12.4

3234Red Arrows

Season APEX 47.8Event APEX 5.78Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11431TechnoTigers

Season APEX 74Event APEX 41.14Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4237Team Lance-A-Bot

Season APEX 225.3Event APEX 83.71Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 297.3 ±12.8

9743MV TITANS

Season APEX 86.9Event APEX 41.14Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9703Q_Bots

Season APEX 56Event APEX 5.78Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5675WiredCats

Season APEX 154.4Event APEX 59.21Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3234, 11431, 4237

/ 100 compat

Projected

130.6 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 3234, 11431, 4237

Auto

22.2 17%

Teleop

68.7 52%

Endgame

40.3 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9743, 9703, 5675

/ 100 compat

Projected

106.1 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 9743, 9703, 5675

Auto

11.8 11%

Teleop

61.7 58%

Endgame

32.2 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.79 · Blue 1.52

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score130.6pts

Blue projected score106.1pts

Red win probability58%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 24.5
Score range: 80–157
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-17
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 509 vs event baseline 142.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

347.1Season APEX297.3

22.2Auto11.8

68.7Teleop61.7

40.3Endgame32.2

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	62	35
teleop	134	120
endgame	81	72
foul	5	0
total	282	227

Result

Final score

282 – 227

Prediction correct · off by 136.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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