FIM District Battle Creek Event presented by BlueOval Battery Park Michigan

Qualification · Qualification 8

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

75.39 – 121.59

36%64%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

73 – 52

Prediction missed · off by 36 points

Limited current-season data (7 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 184.1 ±12.7

5248Robo-Saxons

Season APEX 60.1Event APEX 58.86Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9776Gator Gears

Season APEX 69.3Event APEX 5.43Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11407Sturgis Trojans

Season APEX 54.7Event APEX 11.1Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 146.9 ±13.3

9758Pantron-X

Season APEX 37Event APEX 3.3Rank 38Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5227Eagle Elite

Season APEX 59.4Event APEX 16.86Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10654Tiger Bytes

Season APEX 50.5Event APEX 101.43Rank 35Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5248, 9776, 11407

/ 100 compat

Projected

75.4 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 5248, 9776, 11407

Auto

8.2 10%

Teleop

44.5 56%

Endgame

27.1 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9758, 5227, 10654

/ 100 compat

Projected

121.6 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 9758, 5227, 10654

Auto

29.4 24%

Teleop

55.1 45%

Endgame

37.8 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.19 · Blue 1.71

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score75.4pts

Blue projected score121.6pts

Red win probability36%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -46.2
Score range: 47–150
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 125 vs event baseline 154.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

184.1Season APEX146.9

8.2Auto29.4

44.5Teleop55.1

27.1Endgame37.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	14
teleop	31	17
endgame	12	21
foul	0	0
total	73	52

Result

Final score

73 – 52

Prediction missed · off by 36 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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