FIM District Battle Creek Event presented by BlueOval Battery Park Michigan

Qualification · Qualification 78

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

76.69 – 184.53

21%79%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

154 – 199

Prediction correct · off by 45.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 253.2 ±12.2

9239Panthers robotics

Season APEX 74.9Event APEX 19.75Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10651Gear Cats

Season APEX 60.4Event APEX -1.38Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4855Ramageddon

Season APEX 117.9Event APEX 58.32Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 254.9 ±12.2

5152Alotobots

Season APEX 119.8Event APEX 110.49Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5248Robo-Saxons

Season APEX 60.1Event APEX 42.87Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6588Counter-Torque Robotics

Season APEX 75Event APEX 31.17Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9239, 10651, 4855

/ 100 compat

Projected

76.7 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 9239, 10651, 4855

Auto

26.4 36%

Teleop

43.2 59%

Endgame

3.8 5%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5152, 5248, 6588

/ 100 compat

Projected

184.5 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 5152, 5248, 6588

Auto

36.3 20%

Teleop

95.3 53%

Endgame

48.3 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.04 · Blue 2.18

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score76.7pts

Blue projected score184.5pts

Red win probability21%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -107.8
Score range: 47–215
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 353 vs event baseline 165.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

253.2Season APEX254.9

26.4Auto36.3

43.2Teleop95.3

3.8Endgame48.3

36Consistency28

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	37	50
teleop	77	97
endgame	40	52
foul	0	0
total	154	199

Result

Final score

154 – 199

Prediction correct · off by 45.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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